Who Goes There? Friend or Foe?

Sharad Pawar’s praise of Narendra Modi and his Gujarat model signals the return of his prime ministerial ambition. But it is Modi who needs to watch out

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s fan club has a new member, Union Minister for Agriculture and chief of the Nationalist Congress Party Sharad Pawar. The NCP chief’s ardent praise of Modi’s administrative skills comes as a shocker, especially since it comes at a time when Modi is being projected as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate.

This is not the first time Pawar has praised Modi. He has done it thrice already, in recent times, that too at public meetings. This time Pawar said that unless Maharashtra emulates Gujarat’s growth model, as administered by Modi, the state will fail. Pawar praised Modi regardless of the fact that his party is a coalition partner of the Congress in the Maharashtra government, as well as the Centre. He said this last month while touring the state’s drought hit areas.

In 1972, Maharashtra faced a severe drought that led to large-scale migration from central, eastern and northern Maharashtra to Mumbai and Pune. Now, with over 10,000 villages (of about 30,000) in 12 of the state’s 35 districts reeling under severe drought, experts feel that this year’s drought could be worse than that of 1972. Pawar’s endorsement of Modi’s way of running things, and the much-publicised Gujarat pattern of growth, is surprising because he has never lavished praise on any other prime ministerial aspirant before.

In 1999, when Pawar realised that Sonia Gandhi was the Congress party’s strongest prime ministerial candidate, he walked out of the party and attacked her over the issue of her ‘foreign origin’ and also raised questions about her capabilities. Though Pawar went on to establish the NCP after that, within months he entered a post-poll alliance with Sonia’s Congress both at the Centre and in Maharashtra. While he did endorse Manmohan Singh for the post of Prime Minister, it was most likely because Pawar had no other option and he could not find sufficient support for himself. It is no secret that it has been a long-standing dream of his to be India’s Prime Minister.

Given this, his admiration of Modi and the BJP indicates that Pawar is again preparing to realise his prime ministerial dream. The 2014 Lok Sabha election will be Pawar’s last chance at taking a shot at the country’s top job. Though he has said that he will not contest next year’s general election, few believe him. Even his partymen don’t believe that he could retire from politics so soon.

Pawar’s ‘intimacy’ with the BJP is not a new development. Soon after the 2001 earthquake in Bhuj, Pawar was made chairman of the National Disaster Management Committee by the BJP-led NDA Government. This appointment increased his interactions with the BJP, Gujarat and Modi. Interestingly, though the NCP does not have a strong base in Gujarat, it fields candidates in all elections there. This attention to Gujarat, in a way, has helped the BJP.

In recent months, sources say, Pawar has been feeling isolated from the UPA because he feels that the Congress has not accorded him the respect he deserves. For example, when AK Antony was appointed No 2 in the Cabinet after Pranab Mukherjee’s elevation as President of India, Pawar expressed his displeasure rather publicly by staying away from his Krishi Bhavan office for a few days. The situation was resolved only after a meeting with Sonia Gandhi and assurances that the Congress respects his stature within the Cabinet But this truce may not last too long. Given the public outcry over issues like inflation and corruption, Pawar feels that the Congress may not return to power in 2014. And if even the BJP does not do too well, then there would be chances of a re-alignment of coalition partnerships. In such a situation, if a Third or Fourth Front emerges, Pawar does not want to be caught in the wrong camp. By praising Modi, he may actually be keeping his chances open of leading a new coalition after the 2014 general election. Pawar knows that this non-Congress, non-BJP coalition would not choose Modi as its leader, giving him one last chance to fulfil his dream of becoming the country’s Prime Minister.

There is another reason for Pawar’s lavish praise of Modi: Rahul Gandhi’s formal elevation as No 2 within the Congress. The Maratha leader was never comfortable with Rahul’s growing power in the Government, and he may be seizing an opportunity to make his point. Pawar’s praise of Modi is not lost on the Congress, especially as it comes when sharp comparisons are being drawn between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi as potential prime ministers. Recent opinion polls have not been favourable to Rahul, and his administrative skills are still a bit of an unknown quantity. Besides, the Congress’ fortunes haven’t exactly turned around since Rahul started playing an active role in the party’s day-to-day affairs.

Pawar’s statements, especially at this time, are not good news for the Congress. But bad news for the Congress does not mean there is no bad news for Pawar himself.

If Maharashtra seems to be failing, then Pawar is as much to be blamed as the Congress. If there is a draught in the state, it is in large part because of the state’s irrigation department—headed by his nephew Ajit Pawar—which has a long list of pending projects. And, Ajit has been concentrating less on his ministry because his focus is on personal growth these days. Like his uncle, he too has a dream—he wants to be Chief Minister of Maharashtra.

Sharad Pawar’s other worry is corruption. In recent months several scams in departments headed by NCP ministers have surfaced in Maharashtra. Pawar’s embarrassment has been compounded by corruption crusader Anna Hazare. In Hazare’s words, Pawar is one of the most corrupt politicians in the country. But Pawar has a different take on things. He holds the Congress and Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan responsible for all the NCP’s problems. By endorsing the Modi model of development for Maharashtra, Pawar may be trying to attack the Congress.

After the 2014 general election, in the event of new political alignments emerging in the country, it is unlikely that Pawar would see Modi as much of a threat to his own path to Race Course Road. Sharad Pawar’s political manoeuvrings are legendary in Maharashtra.

People in Maharashtra often quip that Pawar does everything in his power to cause the downfall of the person he praises. Modi may feel happy about Pawar’s endorsement of his administrative acumen, but those who know Pawar closely say that Modi has moved up on Pawar’s hit list.

There is little that Pawar can do about Rahul’s political rise. His gameplan now seems to be: to support an opponent who is not acceptable to most other political parties. He will never give up on his prime ministerial dream. Sooner rather than later, Modi too will realise that Pawar as an ally is more dangerous than him as a foe. Meanwhile, in an attempt to sabotage Rahul’s pitch, Pawar will continue to be a Modi fan until the dust settles after the next general election.

About The Author

Haima Deshpande